This Risk Assessment Section was edited for scientific content by:
Danielle M. Crosier and Daniel P. Molloy
Division of Research & Collections
New York State Museum
Field Research Laboratory
Cambridge, New York 12816
Given the potential for serious biofouling and the economic impact that zebra mussels have demonstrated thus far in their spread throughout North American waterways (see the Distribution section), it is of little surprise that some of the most frequently asked questions pertain to predicting the future spread of this invasive species.
In order to "predict" the spread and subsequent success or failure of zebra mussel establishment in a water body, basic information on the physical habitat must be available. By applying previously observed ranges of physical habitat conditions to a questionable habitat, investigators are better able to predict the ability of the zebra mussel to invade a particular water body successfully. Such risk assessment is an important first step of any zebra mussel management program.
This section deals with the underlying concepts of predicting whether zebra mussels will be successful in colonizing a specific locality. In addition to knowing how to make actual risk predictions, it is also necessary to monitor a specific location based upon the established level of risk (see the Monitoring section).